Running the numbers

Modern art is a passion of mine and recently I came across a fascinating sculpture by French artist Alexandre Durand that captured my imagination. It is titled "Numerous sum ergo sum" and it utterly enchanted me. As you can see from the picture, it is a friendly duck, proudly exposing a digital dial pad in place of its beak, a reference to codes and numbers that define our digitised society. The title is a modification of Descartes philosophical statement “Cogito, ergo sum”; “I think, therefore I am”. The link between numbers is intensified due to the significance of science in our times; classification and numbering turn anything into mathematics and statistics. I am a number, therefore I am.

Nowhere is this more true than in the pursuit of athletic excellence. Put a group of marathon runners in a room together and very quickly the conversation will be dominated by numbers, roughly breaking into four main categories, (i) the number of miles completed each week, (ii) the length of their weekly long run, (iii) the hoary issue of speed work; how fast and for how long, and finally in the anxious days before the race itself, (iv) the specifics of the taper.

There is a wealth of expert opinion on all of the above and, in my previous incarnation as a marathon runner some ten years or more ago, I stuck dogmatically to the conventional theories. But, this time faced with certain limiting factors (a weak Achilles and Lymphoedema), I’m running with my own numbers, and some unorthodox theories. Flying in the face of long-held wisdom may seem a tad foolish but the numbers do add up, and for the geeks amongst you I’d like to share my method.

100 mile-weeks are long gone; this time I believe I can still achieve a reasonable performance on less than half of that. The difference is specificity and that ALL my training is at or faster than intended marathon pace; my speed work is over a minute per mile faster, tempo runs are conducted at 20 seconds per mile faster, and my long runs are at marathon pace. One of the reasons that I can assimilate this physiological effort is because my training stress is carefully managed on the four days a week when I do not run. Yes, I do cycle on three of these days, and I have not limited the quality of these workouts either, but Coach Helen and I have crafted a structure that is working really well. So, how do we know this? How can we be sure whether I am doing enough, or conversely too much?

Applying a methodology that has long been used by cyclists, a Training Stress Score (TSS) is calculated for each workout. These scores are then used to monitor Chronic Training Load (CTL), which very roughly speaking is a 6-week average of training stress. The key to any training program is to push the boundaries and thereby build fitness and enhance performance, without overloading the system and breaking. Having five seasons of data to review, I know the true characteristics of the training stress I can absorb and how far we can push CTL. What is different this time is that running rather than cycling is now my main stress factor.

This graph shows the progression of my CTL since last August when I first considered the prospect of taking on the marathon challenge. I came from a very low level of run training, but the blue line shows that my fitness has built steadily. A cold at the end of November explains the brief downturn in my training load but, that aside, the four-week periodisation is clear, as is the point when the run training starts to ramp up at the end of last year. The peaks in CTL have got me perfectly to my ‘perceived’ boundary with exactly 10 weeks to go. Flawless!

From tomorrow, I switch onto a 3-week periodisation that is very precisely detailed. The best laid plans do not always pan out, BUT if it all comes together the pink line reflects the progression of training load in this key period up to race day. Although I approach the upper boundary of my chronic training load three more times, this is vigilantly managed and my physiological ceiling is respected. Reducing each day, each workout to a number, a training stress score, makes this a mathematicians fantasy; I am a runner, I am a number, therefore I am.

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